From the Desk of

Kevin Tracy

2010-01-20

Scott Brown just won an amazing victory in the state of Massachusetts. But let's face it. It was an amazing victory, in the state of Massachusetts. Although the people of Massachusetts wanted him to kill his healthcare bill, odds are that they aren't exactly going to be thrilled with the strictly pro-life voting record he's going to tally up by the time he comes up for re-election (also in 2012). The odds of Scott Brown winning re-election are probably more slim than the odds of Scott Brown winning in the first place.

Republicans got INSANELY lucky that the cards fell the way they did in Massachusetts. Healthcare or not, we had no business winning in Massachusetts (expression, only). In 2012, the re-election of Scott Brown would mean the utter collapse of the Democratic Party in Massachusetts, which we all know is not very likely giving the strength of the party.

Does he have the experience? Please, he's going to have more experience than Sarah Palin. Wait... that's not exactly saying anything, is it? But that's really irrelevant because he passes the Vladimir Putin Macho Test.

Someone probably should have told him he could wear pants for the test, but eh, to each his own. It's a free country, after all.

Joking aside, there are real benefits for Scott Brown to run for US President. First of all, like Sarah Palin, he won't have a political record except for stopping the Healthcare Bill. That's good if you're running for President (although bad for voters) and, just as importantly, it's good if you're running for US Senate. Allow me to elaborate a little more on this.

In 2007 and 2008, do you remember what Republicans were saying about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? That they were spending so much time on the campaign trail that they were missing votes on the Senate Floor. Of course, GOP hypocrites were totally silent when John McCain won the nomination and missed just as much. Now, normally, that's bad. But for Scott Brown, he'd have a legitimate excuse for not casting votes in 2011 and early 2012 that would come back to bite him in the butt in the Massachusetts Senate Race. And that's if he loses the nomination. If he wins the nomination, he's only going to be casting approximately 9 months of votes before he leaves for Iowa and New Hampshire. That means there's a lot less for a Democratic opponent to attack him on than there would otherwise be.

Can he win the nomination? Yes. States that moved their primaries up have not moved them back, suggesting the Demolition Derby Primary is here to stay. In other words, if you're a Governor or Senator who can raise $40 million, you are just as likely to win the Republican Nomination as anyone else in that category. It's just a matter of how the cards fall. As stated above, Brown has already had the cards fall his way once, if he does it twice in a row, I'll consider believing he's making his own luck.

Can he win the general election? Maybe. In fact, I'll go as far as to say he has the best chance of any Republican aside from John Thune at winning the general election at the moment. Without casting a single vote on the Senate Floor, Scott Brown has become the personification of the rejection of Barack Obama's policies. That's important because there are a disturbing number of bigots and racists who have crept out of the woodwork to attack Barack Obama personally. The fact of the matter is that people actually like President Obama personally, the problem is that they hate his policies. Most other Republicans won't be able to get over that hump. Scott Brown came onto the national scene being BEYOND that hump.

Now, to be honest, I'm a little worried about the crap that's going to come out of Brown's mouth when he does that eventual interview with the political playground idiot Sean Hannity. Hannity has done some of the worst interviews I've ever seen and he has a way of putting his own idiot words into the mouths of good Republicans who don't want to appear mean to the playground idiot and upset the thousands of people who like/pitty him. If he can get through that interview without attacking Obama personally, or at least appearing to attack Obama personally, then he'll be in good shape.