2010-01-15

Scott Brown (R) takes a narrow lead in MA Senate Race

Scott BrownWe've only mentioned this race in passing to this point, so here's what you need to know.

When Ted Kennedy died, his Senate seat became vacant. The Democratic Governor of Massachusetts temporarily filled his seat with a replacement (Ted Kennedy assistant, Paul Kirk) until a special election could be held. That special election will be held on January 19th (known in some parts of the world as "Tuesday"). The race is between Massachusetts State Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) and State Senator Scott Brown (R). Obviously, Coakley was favored to win when the match up between them was made because of both the modern history of Massachusetts and the fact that this seat has such important meaning for the Democrats (Ted Kennedy filled the Senate seat vacated by his brother when he became President in 1960).

With that said, although Massachusetts liberals are more liberal than most of this country's liberals, there is a large population of Republicans and moderates in the state as well and Republicans winning state-wide office is not entirely unheard of. In fact, you don't even have to sell out millions of unborn children to do it (although it certainly helped Mitt Romney).

Like in the rest of the United States, the people of Massachusetts are irritated beyond comprehension at the arrogance and irresponsibility of the Democrats in the Congress. As a result, moderates in that state are flocking to Republican Scott Brown in the final days of the campaign. So much so that Brown actually has a very narrow lead in the latest poll conducted.

50% to 46%

Going into this final week with a 4-point lead in the polls is a really great thing for any underdog candidate. It still may not be enough (between Democratic corruption and Republican sloth in the grassroots, he's going to need a natural 6+% lead in the polls to have a real advantage.

This race is important because of what it means for the healthcare debate. If elected, Brown will vote with Republicans on the bill, breaking the 60 vote majority that Democrats need to keep the bill alive in the Senate. The problem is that time is running out. The corrupt Democrats in the Massachusetts Elections Division are likely going to delay the certification of the election results until after the scheduled date for the Healthcare Reform vote in the United States Senate.

That means two things need to happen. First, every lawyer who considers himself or herself a Republican needs to make hotel reservations in Boston for the night of January 20th and beyond. Odds are that the act of delaying an election certification in order to let a non-elected person vote on the most significant legislation in a century of American History is something the Supreme Court will be all to happy to hear. And odds are that, if done swiftly, the courts will rule in our favor before the Democrats can get a vote on the Senate Floor.

Then the Senate Republicans need to figure out a plan for delaying the Democrats' vote on the issue. That's hard because the Democrats alone have enough votes to end any filibuster attempt. Even if it means pulling the fire alarms in the Capitol Building, it doesn't matter. They MUST do everything in their power to delay the vote until the election results are certified in Massachusetts and Scott Brown can step foot in the Senate chamber.

Of course, this is all dependent on Brown not only winning the January 19th election, but winning it with a large enough majority that the Democrats can't demand a recount, which will take several months more than we have to complete. Even if we win the recount, winning by that close of a margin will be a defeat for the Republican Party.