Kevin Tracy
From the Desk of
Kevin Tracy

2009-10-18

Conservatives Are Still Rallying Around Marco Rubio!!!

In a move that is sure to please Larry Jackson at Political Realities; yesterday, US Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) has endorsed Marco Rubio for US Senate in Florida over the liberal governor of the state and in the process, for all intents and purposes, given an enormous middle finger to the leadership of the Republican Party and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Senator Jon Cornyn.

“Like me, Marco believes that the federal government works best when it returns dollars, decisions and freedom to our local communities and families. In the Senate, Marco will stand up for America’s taxpayers, not with President Obama and dangerous big government spending."

Senator Inhofe isn't alone. Since the NRSC and Senator Cornyn proved how power hungry and corrupt they endorsing the liberal Governor Charlie Crist (who openly supported and campaigned for Obama's stimulus package) more than a YEAR before the primary, a wide assortment of Republicans from all across the ideological (and geographic) map have stepped up to the plate and done the right thing by endorsing Rubio. These include Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC), Mike Huckabee (you might know him as "Mr. Humanitarian" for what he wants to do to the Palestinians), the Club for Growth, the National Review, Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, a few Congressmen and women from Florida, myself (ego trip!), and even much acclaimed Bush political strategist Karl Rove. (Sarah Palin and her self-promoting Sarah PAC are totally AWOL)

Although still trails by a large margin in terms of both poll numbers and fundraising (he raised close to $1 million last quarter, which is enough to keep going strong and much better than what Huckabee could do, but still not a lot), the margins have narrowed considerably since before this Republican Pantheon descended in Florida to support him. The Florida Republican Primary will be held on August 24, 2010, which gives Marco Rubio plenty of time to upset Charlie Crist... even more than he already has.

Across Florida, there's been a phenomenon of County Straw Polls that show Rubio frequently besting Charlie Crist by a sizable margin. Although these aren't necessarily representative of the entire state or county, it does offer a glimmer of hope for an upset. As we saw in 2006 and 2008, the rank and file Republicans are fed up with the establishment and although they'll say they want to vote for the likely winner, in reality they too often stay home. The people who vote, especially in mid-term primaries, are the Republican Activists. And although straw polls typically offer talking points more than anything else, they are very useful for telling where the activists are.

Rubio has a lot of work cut out for him between now and August if he wants to pull this off, but I can say confidently that Rubio is at least going to outperform the polling data on Florida's primary day. Whether or not it will be enough to win is up to Rubio.