If you’re following the Presidential primary on the GOP side, you’ve probably heard that Iowa has failed to pick the eventual nominee 3 of the last 5 times. It surprises people a lot of times, but it really shouldn’t.
The difference between Iowa and, let’s say South Carolina, is not the Republican voter (they are actually pretty similar, except that farm issues play a more important role in Iowa). The difference is time.
In 2008, some candidates had been running for OVER A YEAR before the Iowa Caucuses (late 2006). This year too, most of the candidates officially got in the race several months ago. In other words, the candidates have months to prepare for the Iowa Caucuses. But things move very fast after that.
After Iowa, there are only 7 days until New Hampshire.
After New Hampshire, there are only 10 days until South Carolina.
After South Carolina, there are only 10 days until Florida.
After Florida, there are only 4 days until Nevada and Maine.
After Nevada and Maine, there are only 3 days until Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota.
And we’re only a week into February at this point. Perhaps you’re beginning to see what I’m getting at here.
With six months or more, it’s possible for even the most incompetent and understaffed campaign team to lay the groundwork for victory providing they have a damn good candidate. For argument’s sake, let’s say Rick Santorum wins Iowa because he’s the most conservative candidate. He now has to move his entire campaign team to South Carolina (he’s smart enough to skip New Hampshire) and try laying the same winning ground work they had in a matter of only 15 days (1 for travel, 1 for the primary). That’s pretty much impossible.
Mike Huckabee had much the same problem in 2008. Only after Iowa, instead of going to South Carolina, Huckabee campaigned in New Hampshire. And after that, he went to Michigan; which moved their primary up really far. Huckabee lost both those states (one might say that was inevitable). By the time he got to South Carolina, he had moved his entire campaign team THREE times, had more losses than victories, and ignored South Carolina while Fred Thompson was in the state assailing him mercilessly with nobody in the state to respond. Huckabee eventually lost South Carolina, too.
Granted, in hindsight, I’m glad he lost. However, that doesn’t mean what happened shouldn’t be examined and studied by those of us who have since defected.
Ultimately, it seems as though anybody can win Iowa if they have the right politics for the Republican voters in that state because time isn’t an issue. However, the lack of time after Iowa forces us to conclude that only the candidates with the most elite and well funded campaign teams will be able to win the nomination.
That’s not necessarily a good or bad thing.
Last weekend, the world lost a precious gem when Kim Jong-il, the supreme and dear leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, passed away at the age of 69. According to North Korean television, Kim Jong-il died from overwork and exhaustion associated with maintaining the amazing standard of living known in North Korea. However, we are slowly learning that Kim Jong Il may have died from his exhaustion and wounds after defeating Chuck Norris, who has not been seen or heard from in several weeks. If this is true, we can all rest assured knowing that Kim Jong-il died so that our sins may not be punished by Chick Norris.
One characteristic of countries living with communist economies is the presence of food shortages. Venezuela is no exception. Beef, a cornerstone of the Venezuelan winter diet, is nowhere to be found. If you’re lucky, you’ll find pork, but even supplies of that are running low. Making matters worse, it’s getting harder for the Venezuelan people to find fresh fruit at reasonable prices.
The world is getting one of its first unclassified looks at the Aircraft Carrier Varyag. What kind of name is Varyag for an aircraft carrier, you wonder? It’s a Chinese name. And no, this they aren’t selling to us. It’s China’s first aircraft carrier and its size rivals the largest counterparts in the US fleet.
It’s no secret that I haven’t been a fan of Mitt Romney. I find the man as unlikable as that stubborn growth on the inside of my left middle toe that you don’t want to know about. However, like that disgusting growth, there’s a very real possibility that I may be stuck with him.
Herman Cain is in trouble, and I’m not talking about his presidential campaign. Up until now, Cain’s wife has heard of most of the accusers, supposedly because Cain was honest about her concerning possible upcoming lawsuits. Well, Mrs. Cain has never heard of this latest accuser. DESPITE the fact that Herman Cain admits to befriending her 13 years ago and giving her money to “help pay the bills.”
