Kevin Tracy

Maybe “plagiarized” is a bit strong of a word. But when someone steals my analysis and tries to pass it off as their own, it gets on my nerves. I’ll let you decide for yourself what it is. Either way, however, I beat the Washington Post with this by about TWO DAYS. Plus, in my honest opinion, my post was more entertaining to read.

Here’s the Washington Post blog piece by Dan Balz.

(9 January 2012) Rick Santorum and the Huckabee Trap

Two days earlier on 7 January 2012, you may remember I wrote this before the Presidential Debate on ABC.

(7 January 2012) Rick Santorum Should Be In South Carolina, Not New Hampshire!

Here’s an excerpt from my blog post:

After a razor thin 8-vote loss to Mitt Romney in Iowa, Rick Santorum is in New Hampshire hoping to shock the political world yet again. But, as Admiral Ackbar warns, “IT’S A TRAP!!!”

Let’s look at this without the Star Wars joke…

And then I explained my analysis of the situation without the Star Wars joke.

Rick Santorum is a solid conservative candidate that conservatives of all backgrounds could really get behind (Ron Paul’s supporters aren’t conservatives, they’re anti-conservative reactionaries and anarchists). The problem is that he is most often and easily identified as a social conservative. Unfortunately, while that was a huge benefit to him in Iowa, it doesn’t mean squat in New Hampshire, which is typically more interested in limited government and cutting taxes. Herein lies the trap that catches so many underdog candidates.

To illustrate what is going to happen, let’s take a minute to look at Mike Huckabee in 2008. After winning Iowa, Huckabee was on top of the world… except financially. In a lot of ways, he was in a much better position than Rick Santorum coming out of Iowa, having beaten Romney in a nearly landslide fashion. Like Santorum, Huckabee made the decision to go to New Hampshire… where he lost… miserably. [...] By the time Huckabee got to South Carolina, a state he should have won in a landslide, Huckabee found himself trying to fend off John McCain while Fred Thompson mercilessly attacked Huckabee. Huckabee narrowly lost South Carolina’s primary to McCain before Thompson dropped out.

[...]

Because Santorum has no chance of winning New Hampshire, like Huckabee, he really should head down to South Carolina and make his stand there. You have to remember, Santorum spent months preparing for his narrow loss to Romney in Iowa. He has precious few days in New Hampshire, so a victory there is almost entirely out of the question. South Carolina, on the other hand, is much more in line with his natural demographic and is at least weeks (not days) away.

As many of the readers who have been around since the Huckabee campaign will attest to, I have said since day one that going to New Hampshire was a mistake. I actually wrote about the problem for lesser-known or flat-out-broke Presidential Candidates in New Hampshire and beyond here:

Why Doesn’t Iowa Pick The Winners?

With six months or more, it’s possible for even the most incompetent and understaffed campaign team to lay the groundwork for victory providing they have a damn good candidate. For argument’s sake, let’s say Rick Santorum wins Iowa because he’s the most conservative candidate. He now has to move his entire campaign team to South Carolina (he’s smart enough to skip New Hampshire) and try laying the same winning ground work they had in a matter of only 15 days (1 for travel, 1 for the primary). That’s pretty much impossible.

Mike Huckabee had much the same problem in 2008. Only after Iowa, instead of going to South Carolina, Huckabee campaigned in New Hampshire. And after that, he went to Michigan; which moved their primary up really far. Huckabee lost both those states (one might say that was inevitable). By the time he got to South Carolina, he had moved his entire campaign team THREE times, had more losses than victories, and ignored South Carolina while Fred Thompson was in the state assailing him mercilessly with nobody in the state to respond. Huckabee eventually lost South Carolina, too.

I would have posts going back to 2008 all saying the same thing if my account wasn’t hacked and deleted by Ron Paulbots a while ago.

Here’s what the Washington Post’s Dan Balz wrote today.

Rick Santorum and the Huckabee Trap

MANCHESTER, N.H. — No one has campaigned harder in New Hampshire this past week than Rick Santorum. But has the Republican former senator from Pennsylvania fallen into the same trap that ensnared Mike Huckabee four years ago?

There is something alluring about New Hampshire and its storied presidential primary. The gravitational pull of the state’s history, its tradition and the clutch of media that descend on the state during primary week can be irresistible, particularly to a dark-horse candidate who springs a surprise in Iowa.

But there is also the cruel reality that, for Santorum, South Carolina looms as a more crucial test for his candidacy. In New Hampshire, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the clear favorite to win. The electorate here includes a smaller percentage of social and religious conservatives who were key to Santorum’s success in Iowa.

Would Santorum have been better off spending the bulk of his time since Iowa burrowing into South Carolina rather than New Hampshire? Four years ago, Huckabee won Iowa and was faced with a decision similar to the one Santorum confronted. The former Arkansas governor opted to make a play for New Hampshire (and later Michigan) rather than heading south to plant a flag in South Carolina. His reward? He finished a distant third, with just 11 percent of the vote.

When the Palmetto State voted a few weeks later, Huckabee narrowly lost to Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), effectively ending his hopes of winning the GOP nomination. Former senator Fred Thompson (Tenn.), who had parked in South Carolina after Iowa and received enough votes there to destroy Huckabee’s chances of beating McCain, also hurt him.

[...]

I mean, take away my personal experiences and Star Wars humor, and it’s the same thing two days later. Balz even called it a “TRAP!”

Am I crazy here or was my post plagiarized by the Washington Post? When I was in college, if I tried to do something like this, I’m pretty sure every last one of my professors would have kicked me out of their class and reported me for plagiarism. Then again, maybe it’s not plagiarism; and I just worked really hard for nothing, writing my own papers by expressing my own thoughts.

As I said before, this is exactly why people read KTracy.com. The analysis you get here is completely unique from what you find anywhere else (especially the Washington Post). Plus, there’s a lot more fun being had here. When’s the last time Admiral Ackbar and Sun Tzu were quoted in the same article by any national news organization?