Last night’s Republican Presidential debate in South Carolina was kind of low key, as we discussed. However, I think it may have been one of the most important of the entire primary season. Up until now, conservative Republicans have wanted to know who their alternative to Mitt Romney was. It was very hard for a while because there were so many choices. Pawlenty, Cain, Bachmann, and Perry have all dropped out of the race; and people (I hope) are finally convinced that Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, or any other brainless celebrity isn’t going to jump in and save the day.
That leaves us with two conservative alternatives to Romney, former-Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and former-United States Senator Rick Santorum. And finally, with only two conservatives fighting against Mitt Romney, we were able to see the shockingly stark contrast between our choices.
Let me start off by saying that both alternatives to Romney are equally acceptable; neither is 100% perfect; and I personally don’t have a preference between them.
Rick Santorum obviously felt it necessary to draw the major contrast between Newt and himself during the debate. Specifically, that while Newt Gingrich is a great thinker with some enormous ideas, he is also undisciplined and unable to focus. Newt Gingrich pretty much conceded this, arguing that he accomplished a lot but not actually denying that he is unable to focus and lacks discipline.
And that’s the trade off. As one of the commentators on CNN after the debate said, “Newt Gingrich swings for the fences every time and you see some really spectacular hits, but you also see some really spectacular whiffs.”
This can be applied far more broadly. Newt Gingrich has the potential to really clobber Obama good or really get his ass handed to him if he wins the nomination. And as President, he can either really do an incredible job rebuilding America and preparing us for a 21st Century of greatness… or he’ll whiff and completely undo all the conservative gains of the last three years.
Rick Santorum, in my opinion, is a conservative conservative. What do I mean by that? Well, Rick Santorum isn’t going to have any transformational ideas or even have the desire to implement them if someone else provided the ideas to him. Rick Santorum probably isn’t going to clobber President Barack Obama, either. The flip side of this is that Rick Santorum is predictable and we know his ideas are tried and true because they have already been approved by decades of Republican governing at the state and federal level. Rick Santorum may not prepare us for a 21st Century of Greatness, but he WILL stop the bleeding. He may not clobber Obama, but he is a lot more likely to win (just without the landslide). Newt Gingrich is full of risk, Rick Santorum isn’t… but with higher risks comes with the chance of greater things.
The question each conservative who votes in the upcoming primaries needs to ask is, “How much am I willing to gamble?” “Do I do the safe thing and vote for the conservative that will win or do I take a risk and vote for a brilliant conservative with enormous potential who might lose and is unlikely to deliver on most of his great ideas?”
At face value, it seems like a no brainer. Go with the safe bet and get rid of Obama. The problem is that the United States has already lost a lot of its position in the world because of China and other emerging economies, political alliances like the European Union (despite their troubles), and continuing dependence on oil from many of the world’s authoritarian dictatorships. Having been THE leader of the world for so long, we as conservatives really want to reclaim that title, and we’re willing to take some risks in our domestic politics to attain it. Newt Gingrich, at least in my approximation, is worth the risk his conservative voters take on him.
On the other hand, rebuilding our greatness isn’t going to happen overnight and the traditional line of conservative thought tells us that the first thing we have to do is stop the bleeding. Rick Santorum’s platform and his plan for bringing jobs back from overseas in particular is going to stop the bleeding and get us started on the right path. Unfortunately, he’s not going to be President long enough to completely restore our position in the world. It will take decades… how many depends on how many setbacks the Democrats and our international competitors create for us.
There is one thing that really concerns me about each candidate, too.
Newt Gingrich’s marriage history and the poor relationship (at best) with his ex-wife is going to make it very difficult for him to win over moderate women voters. Adding Sarah Palin to the ticket isn’t going to solve the problem, either. Moderate women hate her as much as everyone else with an ounce of common sense. Entering this general election with such a large and broad demographic already decidedly against you is very bad for your chances at winning the election.
Rick Santorum bothers me in another way, though. I mentioned it durring the live debate commentary last night. When Rick Santorum attacks someone, he doesn’t look at them. When they respond, he doesn’t look at them. More often than not, that’s the behavior of a coward. Now, granted, when you know you’re the most powerful man in the world, it makes being a coward a lot easier. Still, it’s troublesome because we naturally want strong, courageous leaders; and, from what I’ve seen, I don’t know how well Rick Santorum fits that role.
Both of these candidates have their pluses and minuses, but they do equal out. The most important thing to keep in mind is that both are better than Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. During last night’s debate, things started getting dirty between Newt and Santorum; which is very unhealthy considering what needs to be done.