Kevin Tracy

I’m proud of myself. I didn’t get sucked into any of the GOP candidates’ campaigns. Granted, it can be fun helping to make a candidate, but none of the GOP field really deserved any support (let alone mine). Still, people get crazy this time of year; and the Iowa contest is right around the corner.

Well, I missed last night’s debate with the exception of a few minutes on the radio where Bachmann was doing her damnedest to make Ron Paul look smart during their argument over Iran. I also heard Newt’s comments about rebalancing power by subpoenaing judges who make controversial decisions. That’s an interesting idea, but it works both ways. What happens when a Democrat-controlled Congress subpoena a conservative judge for an anti-abortion decision? I think there are better ways to reign in the courts.

Anyway, my point is that I don’t know how the last debate will affect the turnout in Iowa. However, I’ve been asked for an early prediction, so here it goes.

1. Mitt Romney
2. Newt Gingrich
3. Ron Paul
4. Rick Perry
5. Michele Bachmann
6. Rick Santorum
7. Jon Huntsman

Here’s why.

Very recent polling has suggested Gingrich’s numbers are slipping in the Hawkeye state. That’s in large part to everyone else attacking the candidate leading the anti-Romney bandwagon with the most momentum. The result of which is that Newt Gingrich is vulnerable in Iowa. Mitt Romney knows that if Newt wins Iowa, Newts strong poll numbers in New Hampshire and South Carolina will propel him to the nomination.

For Mitt Romney to win the nomination, Gingrich has to lose Iowa. It doesn’t have to be Romney that wins Iowa, as long as its anybody but Newt. The problem is that the only candidate in position to beat him is Mitt Romney. Not only does he have the support, but Mitt Romney also has the aged infrastructure he built four years ago.

Aged or not, however, it doesn’t matter. Newt, not having spent enough time campaigning, lacks the infrastructure all together. That’s a tactical advantage for Romney, who hasn’t spent much time in Iowa this time around, either.

That will change. Knowing he can’t let Newt win this first contest, Mitt will probably spend much of the next three weeks in Iowa. Unless there are any enormous events; such as a Huckabee, Palin, or Cain endorsement; I predict Mitt will win Iowa.

Newt will come in second. In the polls, Ron Paul is in a close third place. That tells me one of two things: either Iowans are really stupid or the participation in this year’s contest is really low. I suspect the latter. Ron Paul’s strong showing at the Iowa Straw Poll was in large part because so few people cared enough about the candidates to travel to Ames.

However, low turnout and a close third or not, Ron Paul will come in a distant third (maybe even fourth). There are two major reasons for this. The first is that Iowa is a caucus state. If you don’t know how it works, I’ll make it easy to understand. A room of Iowans gather from the same precinct (1,874 of them). They listen to pitches from the campaigns, make pitches themselves, and then vote. Each room elects a delegate from their county to the state convention, which determines who to send to the GOP National Convention. In other words, unless you win a room, you’re not going to win a delegate. This has a way of separating top tier candidates from bottom tier candidates. Ron Paul’s idiot brigade in Iowa isn’t going to have the majority in many of the precincts, which will deflate his numbers.

THE SECOND REASON why Ron Paul will under preform is because he just does. Ron Paul’s demographic is very vocal and very annoying, but a lot of them are too lazy to register to vote; and if they are registered, they are either too apathetic or stoned to get themselves out to do it. You remember that smelly kid who wore the same two hoodies everyday in school? He still smells and now he supports Ron Paul.

When Iowans Caucus, a few libertarian-minded conservatives considering Ron Paul despite of his wackiness will see the quality (or lack thereof) of the people making a pitch for Ron Paul and decide they don’t want anything to do with these losers. In addition to have never showered in the past year, Ron Paul’s supporters are exceptionally rude, inconsiderate, and just unagreeable “people” in general. Civilized people just don’t like them.

Rick Perry will probably come in fourth, but his traditional conservative message and recent faith-based messages may play well enough to put him over Ron Paul.

Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann are going to be in a battle for 5th place. Rick Santorum probably has the highest “favorable” rating of any candidate, which may make him a lot of people’s second choice if they are convinced not to vote for Romney, Gingrich, or Perry. Bachmann is just riding the Sarah Palin wave. She’s a woman with a big mouth but inferior brain. I still like Elizabeth Dole, so I don’t have a problem with women. It just do happens that these two (Palin and Bachmann) are obnoxious. Luckily for them, obnoxious seems to be the new black (or red?) in the Republican Party. I think Bachmann will win only because her support early in the campaign have her a networking connection Rick Santorum never managed to build for himself.

Jon Huntsman will probably come in last since he’s focused his efforts in New Hampshire.

Tonight, I’ll give my predictions for who will drop out after Iowa.